Oregon Blog Updates

I've been chasing down a rumor floating about that former Oregon State Senator Margaret Carter is withdrawing from the Multnomah County Chair race.

Carter associate Lisa Naito just told me that Margaret will be making an announcement today at 3PM at Daybreak Shelter Network in SE Portland.

Stay tuned....

48 Hours: The End of My Never-Really-Started Political Career

Having made myself look thoroughly ridiculous by running a 6-hour campaign for County Chair, and being now thoroughly convinced that I will never hold elected office, I have decided that I might as well at least amuse everyone by telling my friends (and enemies) exactly what my role has been in the 48-hour kerfuffle that (as his longtime aide Stacey Dycus put it) Ben Westlund would so much have enjoyed having caused. (Warning: This is really long, quite self-indulgent, and will probably only really amuse people who really like me or really hate me, so that limits the readership dramatically, but I figure I have a few big fans and sworn enemies out there. The only person who is required to read it in full is Steve Duin.)

Monday morning – I start getting calls from pretty serious people telling me to run for Treasurer. I think it would be a great job but I don’t have much stomach for thinking about running a day after Ben died, and I also can’t figure out how I would support myself during an 8-month primary and general election campaign, given that I have no money whatsoever (having drained my savings in the Senate race).  I conclude, however, that I can’t turn down the opportunity – and the entreaties of my would-be supporters - unless the Governor appoints someone else really good: someone who could pull together a good campaign quickly, and whom the progressive community could rally behind. So I called a friend in the Governor’s office and tell him that – mentioning Ted Wheeler as one of the other, rally-behind alternatives. (I did say I’d like the appointment, but I didn’t really expect the Governor to give it to me: I think he has some respect for me, but we’re not exactly tight.)  (And yes I did think of the fact that that would open up Wheeler’s job, though it also occurred to me that good friends of mine might also be interested.)

Monday afternoon and evening – I get more and more calls from people encouraging me to run for Treasurer. I start thinking about all the things you could do with that job. You could use the State’s role as a major shareholder in major corporations to fight (along with other pension funds) against CEO compensation practices that provide distorting incentives and result in extravagant pay. You could step up Ben’s efforts to use some of the State’s portfolio to invest in jobs in Oregon. You could join with other progressive Treasurers to promote Wall Street reform to protect investors and consumers from fraud and future meltdowns. You could follow in the footsteps of California’s activist Treasurer Phil Angelides and invest in socially and environmentally conscious businesses, in environmental businesses and technologies, in inner-city and underserved communities. (I wasn’t sure whether Oregon laws governing investments were more limiting than California’s, but if under current Oregon law you couldn’t do those things you could ask the Legislature to change the law.) It also occurs to me that if the Republican really is Chris Telfer, it might not be that hard a general election; I might not have to run full-time, could do a little paying work and scrape by

Monday 6 p.m.: I have come all the way around to hoping the Governor appoints somebody I would be comfortable running against. Specifically, I hope he appoints Greg Macpherson, partly because Greg and I were supposed to run against each other for State Rep in 2002, until our district was abolished and mostly given to Caroline Tomei in redistricting. Voters were deprived of the showdown between Greg ‘Downtown Corporate Lawyer’ Macpherson and Steve ‘Environmental Lawyer and Activist’ Novick; now the time has finally come. (You could also think of it as the consolation race for the ’08 statewide primary losers’ bracket.) I call my friend in the Governor’s office and leave a message – “I’ve changed my mind; DON’T try to find a consensus candidate; either appoint me or give me someone to run against.”

Tuesday morning: Hear that Chair Wheeler HAS been appointed. I don’t know that mild-mannered Ted will exactly be the scourge of Wall Street, but maybe he could be (Anna Griffin, will you tell him you’re counting on it?), and it would be hard to run against him after proposing him as a possible consensus choice. I’m deflated, but then very quickly start thinking that as County Chair, I would have a chance (working with the State and the City) to work on refining our ability to use our collective public safety resources most effectively. We could implement Judge Michael Marcus’ evidence-based sentencing ideas. We could fight for additional alcohol and drug treatment money from a beer and wine tax increase.  (I could tell the legislators ‘I busted my butt for you on 66 and 67, and we won! – now, for the love of God, will you finally put Paul Romain in his place?’) We could (following a Judge Marcus idea) ask the DA’s office to keep track, for each assistant DA, of the recidivism rates of the defendants referred to that ADA, and see if the rates vary and if that can be correlated with differences in the ADAs’ approaches to resolving some kinds of cases, suggesting possible policy options. I could try to build the new courthouse that we desperately need. (In the bond campaign we could run the ad I envisioned years ago: “WHY SGHOULD YOU CARE THAT THE MULTNOMAH COUNTY COURTHOUSE ISN’T EARTHQUAKE PROOF? BECAUSE AT ANY MOMENT YOU COULD BE CALLED FOR JURY DUTY!” – with a picture of someone entering a door that says “JURORS” and then having the roof fall in.) I could help get Ron Wyden and the rest of the Federal delegation to convince their colleagues to change the Medicaid laws so people in custody are still eligible for Federal Medicaid.  (Now, as soon as the county takes someone into custody, they have to start paying for their health care – a huge expense.) I could help lobby the Federal delegation, and help them lobby their colleagues, to extend the stimulus, by painting for them, and for the public, the dire picture of what happens at the local level (in every county, not just in Oregon, but in America) if it is not extended. And I could fight for property tax reform that ends the incredible neighborhood-to-neighborhood inequities created by Meaure 47/50, and raises some money to boot.

Also, I’d have my chance to tell the wonderful, but painfully politically correct people who run the Library that the “Everybody Reads” book for the year doesn’t ALWAYS have to be about death, sadness, internment camps or cholera. Couldn’t Everybody Read “From the Mixed-Up Files of Mrs. Basil E. Frankweiler” in 2011? (As my friend Laura and I urged Diane Linn when we worked for her in 2001.)

Tuesday early to mid-morning : Pleased to see over 150 people accumulate on the Novick for County Chair Facebook page. Make some calls to people who say they will help. Make press calls that seem to go well.

Tuesday late morning: Start reaching people who tell me that they would hate to have to choose between me and Jeff Cogen for County Chair. Get some calls from people asking me not to run against Cogen.  Get message from Cogen himself. Realize that although I would start out with, I am confident, a huge advantage in name ID, this would be a very tough fight. Start thinking about how Jeff Cogen has always done everything I ever asked him to do, including marching around Pioneer Courthouse Square with signs saying where tax dollars go. Recall that he’s the only person who I ever heard provide what sounded like a rational, rather than pie-in-the-sky, case for why Oregon really could turn into a solar energy materials manufacturing powerhouse. Sternly reject those thoughts: “You might never get an opportunity to make a real difference again! You can’t let friendship stand in your way!”

Tuesday around noon: Call District Attorney Mike Schrunk and County Human Services Director Joanne Fuller to ask about some policy details (I figure it doesn’t make any sense for either of them to play favorites in the race but they’d be happy to give me facts and tell me if any of my ideas are really stupid.)  They’re very helpful as always.

Tuesday 12:30: Drive to Elections Office. Park outside. Sit, think. Decide to return Cogen’s call before I file. Call Cogen.

Tuesday, 1:30: Walk into restaurant to meet Cogen, while I’m on the phone. Get another call while finishing conversation, which goes to voicemail. Say hi to Jeff. Check the voicemail. It’s Beverly Stein telling me she’s supporting Jeff. I reflect on the fact that if I were asked ‘who is the best judge of who would be the best County Chair?’ , I would doubtless answer: ‘Beverly Stein.’ I also reflect on the fact that my Senate campaign would never have gotten off the ground if Beverly Stein hadn’t given me her list and done a host of other things for me. Running against a candidate supported by Beverly Stein would really feel awful.

Tuesday 1:35: Start talking with Cogen. Hear him explain what he’s been doing and what he wants to do next.

Tuesday 1:44: Tell Cogen I’m not running against him.

Rest of afternoon: Call back all the people I had called before.

Tuesday evening: Thinking back over the past ten years, realize that somebody’s trying to send me a message: I am not supposed to be in elected office. Consider this:

2001: State rep race killed off by redistricting.

2003: Spend months preparing to run for Earl Blumenauer’s seat when all signs are that he’s running for Mayor; line up an amazingly gratifying list of hypothetical supporters; then Earl decides to stay.

2004: Maria Rojo de Steffey convinces me to run for her County Commission seat because she’s planning to run for City Commission – then changes her mind and decides to stay. (No hard feelings, Maria! Still love you.)

2006: (This involves revealing semi-confidences but it’s ancient history now and too funny to skip): My good friends Erik Sten and Ginny Burdick are running against each other. Someone who purports to be familiar with Erik’s thinking tells me that Erik had been hesitant about running and might think about stepping back if he could find a suitable progressive hero replacement such as myself. I tell said person that although I wish Ginny Burdick weren’t running against Erik, she’s one of my best friends and I could not run against her. Years later I tell this story to Ginny and she says “you know, I thought someone needed to run against Erik but I might not have run against you.“ (I have no idea if the purported intermediary really was relating Erik’s thinking and I wonder if Ginny can accurately imagine how she would have reacted to that scenario, but assuming complete accuracy I might have passed up a chance to jump into the race with the blessing of BOTH contestants!)

2002-10: Live in the State House district of the longest-serving member of the State House (the delightful Caroline Tomei).  (Note: Oregon Supreme Court throws out term limits in 2002.)

Also 2002-10: Numerous other politicos who unlike me still have the brains they were born with move into districts with open seats and win. I contemplate that idea periodically and it just seems too crass. I am an idiot. 

2008: Run for Senate in the same year that ‘my’ (Maria’s) County Commission seat opens up, as well as two City Council seats and ‘my’ (Kate Brown’s) State Senate seat – meaning numerous possibilities are gone for foreseeable future. Chuck Schumer empties the safes of Wall Street against me to beat me in the primary. Subsequently Jeff Merkley does such a good job in the Senate that I really can’t be too mad about it.

Also 2008: Darlene Hooley retires. Someone purporting to be acting for the powers that be in Washington, D.C. tells me that if I drop out of the Senate race and run for Hooley’s seat the dark national forces arrayed against me in the Senate primary will swing into action on my behalf. I point out that I don’t live in the district (not a legal requirement, of course) and have asked a lot of people for their support on the basis that I was running against Gordon Smith so I think it would be immoral to take said dark forces up on their offer.  Again, I am an idiot. (Also, to be frank, I kind of suspected a trick, and didn’t think anyone could really keep Kurt Schrader out of the race.) (By the way, the purported emissary of the powers that be responded by saying, understandingly, 'well, if you see it as a moral issue, that's the end of the story,' proving that even representatives of dark national forces can respect principled stands.)

2009: Start preparing to run for Governor for several months. Become convinced I can win against anyone but John Kitzhaber or Peter DeFazio.  Kitzhaber gets in.

2010: Permanently destroy credibility by running 6-hour County Chair race.

The message is pretty clear, I think: Klotho, Atropos and Lachesis (well, I guess we don't know about Lachesis yet) just don’t want me to serve in elected office. Whenever an opportunity SEEMS to come up, it either vanishes into thin air, involves doing something morally distasteful, or requires slaying six dragons at once, one-handed. And now that I’ve permanently destroyed my credibility, well …

But at least people do seem to take my phone calls. So every once in a while I’ll call Wheeler and tell him needs to beat up Wall Street more. And I’ll call Cogen every once in a while and say: “All the sustainability stuff is good, Jeff. But since public safety’s 50% of the county budget, I expect 50% of your press releases to be related to public safety. When’s the last time you talked with Judge Marcus anyway?” And he’ll say: “I was just talking to Marcus yesterday. We’re working on something big, I promise. But I can send out a press release whenever we put up another solar panel. People love it. The crime stuff’s harder. What do you want me to do, make an announcement every day a released felon goes without committing another crime?”

Anyway, that was my 48 hours.

P.S. – DAMN IT! I should at least have insisted that Cogen commit to making ‘Mixed-Up Files’ the ‘Everybody Reads’ book for 2011 before giving him my endorsement!

 

 

 

On Monday, the Congressional Quarterly had a story about the rise of Rep. Greg Walden through the ranks of the House GOP leadership.

Apparently, Walden is now the chairman of the House Republican leadership. (That's not to be confused with being the House Republican leader. I don't get it either.)

As CQ notes:

Rep. Greg Walden of Oregon appears to have done all the right things to win him an appointed seat at the GOP leadership table: be a good team player, prove you’ve got political and policy chops, and have friends in high places.

Friends in high places? Yeah, it seems that he's super-close to NRCC chairman Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX) - with the families vacationing together.

But here's the money quote - with a hat tip to the O's Jeff Mapes. It comes from Rep. Mike Conaway (R-TX):

“He has shown himself to be so politically astute in maneuvering on behalf of the NRCC,” Conaway said. “He’s been around for a while and has good instincts that are hard to replicate.”

Mike Conaway ... Mike Conaway ... Mike Conaway. Where have we heard that name before?

Oh yeah, right here. Mike Conaway was the guy who replaced Greg Walden as the chair of the NRCC's audits committee. Mike Conaway is the guy who blew the whistle on a scam being run on the NRCC by its own treasurer; a scam that resulted in the loss of at least a million dollars. Mike Conaway was the guy who had the brilliant idea of actually picking up a telephone and calling the accounting firm that the treasurer claimed had reviewed his work.

Mike Conaway is the guy who actually did the job when Greg Walden spectacularly failed at it.

At the time, I wrote:

Not only did Greg Walden fail to meet with the auditing firm before they hired them, he failed to meet with them for three straight years, and when he tried - oh, how he tried - to get a meeting... he never bothered to pick up the phone and call direct.

It's a telephone, Greg. Just pick it up and dial.

You could have saved your party a million dollars. You could have been a hero. You could have been a contender.

But as it turns out, you should never underestimate the party that brought you "heckuva job, brownie" to promote a guy who fails spectacularly. Go figure.

Matt Davis at Blogtown:

Oregon Republicans Using Robocalls To Find CANDIDATES Classic. They're running in two districts, one in Portland, one in Eugene, confirms Bob Tiernan, chairman of the Oregon Republican Party. Here's what they say, according to one astute reader who transcribed his message:

This is Bob Tiernan, Chairman of the Oregon Republican Party, and we need your help! Have you ever wanted to run for office and help Republicans in our state take back our state government? Well, now is the time. Tomorrow is the filing deadline to become a member of our legislature and we have yet to find a good candidate to run in your district. Are you interested? Are you ready to make a difference? If you are, please call us by 12 noon tomorrow, that's 12 noon March 9.

Call the Oregon Republican Party at 503-595-[redacted] and ask for Polly, or you can call me directly, Bob Tiernan, at 503-860-[redacted] Hey, if Scott Brown can win the Kennedy seat, anything can happen this election. Call us!

I swear..you just can't make this stuff up. Awesome.

Discuss.

By Julie Fahey of Eugene, Oregon. Julie is a business consultant and a member of the 2010 class of Emerge Oregon. She observed the OEA convention as a member of the public (not as a member of OEA).

The OEA-PIE convention was held on Saturday in Eugene – by now we all know the major news coming out of the convention (Bradbury won the endorsement), but I thought the BlueOregon crowd might be interested in some observations about the day. The convention hosted candidates from a number of different races, but the main event was clearly the Governor’s race. The four candidates attending were Bradbury, Kitzhaber, Alley, and Lim (no Chris Dudley).

The convention was structured so that each candidate spoke to the entire delegate group for 10 minutes and then fielded questions from the floor for 10 minutes. Delegates also had the opportunity to get personal time with the candidates during smaller caucuses and in hospitality suites.

The Republicans candidates went first. Allen Alley gave a reasonably good speech that touched on government spending and what he learned on his tour of Oregon schools. John Lim was entertaining, though he spent at least 3-4 of his 10 minutes talking about how he would increase tourism to Oregon (odd for an audience of educators).

Nice as it was to see Republican candidates engage with the OEA (and vice versa), the main contenders of the day were obviously Bradbury and Kitzhaber. Bradbury’s speech was full of passion and energy – his central message was that we need to fully fund education in Oregon, though he was pretty light on the specifics of how (other than briefly mentioning closing tax loopholes). Presumably he included more specifics in the written materials submitted to delegates beforehand, and used the speech as a chance to connect emotionally with the group.

Kitzhaber’s speech came across as intellectual, thoughtful, and issues-focused. He was more subdued than Bradbury, but delivered more content in terms of his education priorities (early childhood education; performance-based school funding; revenue reform through shifting from an income tax towards a sales tax). I found one section of his speech particularly interesting – he talked about how “reform” and “performance” are words that can be off-putting since they’ve been used in the past by people attempting to undermine our current public education system. He countered that these words don’t have to be negative – we can reclaim them. In his comments on what reform could mean, he drew extensively from Powerful Learning, one of Linda Darling-Hammond’s books (a Stanford professor, rumored in 2008 to be a possible nominee for U.S. Secretary of Education).

When it came time for the floor debate, several people commented sincerely about how lucky the OEA was to have two excellent candidates to choose from. One of the delegates described his perception that one of the candidates (Bradbury) had been more like the cheerleader and the other (Kitzhaber) like the Head Coach, but overall it seemed that the crowd was favoring Bradbury.

The final vote tally was:

49,448Bradbury31,607Kitzhaber3,603No Recommendation796Allen Alley97John Lim

After Bradbury’s warm reception, and Kitzhaber’s mentions of “reform” and “performance”, I expected that the endorsement would go to Bradbury. But, I thought the final vote tally might be a little closer. I’m not sure how much of the endorsement was based on Bradbury’s passion and insistence that we can fully fund the QEM and how much was due to the fact that Kitzhaber’s talk of reform may not have sat very well with OEA members/leadership. During the floor debate, one of the delegates said that there can be a difference between a pro-union/OEA candidate and a pro-education candidate.

I believe the OEA endorsed the more pro-OEA candidate, but I think it remains to be seen whether they endorsed the more pro-education candidate.

Earlier, I gave you the big board for the House -- here's the one for the Senate.

Again, these are all the filings posted online through 6:20 p.m. (One caveat: Some late filings may have yet to appear online, as they can be submitted on handwritten forms - and have to be data-entered by staff.) Update, 9:20 a.m.: Nothing new online, gotta assume this is final.

Democrats on the left, Republicans on the right, incumbents in bold.

Democrats Republicans 3 Alan Bates Dave Dotterrer 4 Floyd Prozanski Marilyn Kittelman 6 Lee Beyer 7 Chris Edwards Karen Bodner 8 Dan Rayfield Frank Morse 10 Jeff Goodwin Jackie Winters William Dalton Sarah Arcune 11 Peter Courtney Michael W Forest 13 Timi Parker Larry George 15 Travis Comfort Bruce Starr Chuck Riley 16 Betsy Johnson Bob Horning 17 Suzanne Bonamici Stevan C Kirkpatrick 19 Richard Devlin Steve Griffith Mary Kremer 20 Martha Schrader Alan R Olsen 22 Chip Shields Marcus W Tempey Dwayne E Runyan 24 Rod Monroe Rob Wheeler Ron McCarty Dave Mowry 26 Brent Barton Chuck Thomsen

A few things worth noticing:

First, and most obviously, the Democrats are defending 10 incumbents and two open seats now held by Democrats. Republicans are only defending four incumbents and have no open seats. That's a tall order for Democrats.

Only one seat is going uncontested - SD 6, featuring Lee Beyer (and currently held by Sen. Bill Morrissette.)

Senator Rod Monroe is the only incumbent Senator of either party facing a primary challenge - and it's coming from two former candidates, Ron McCarty and Dave Mowry.

Rep. Chuck Riley faces a primary challenge from Travis Comfort for the right to take on Sen. Bruce Starr.

While the GOP primary for the right to face Sen. Chip Shields is barely relevant, the primary race in SD 19 is going to be a barnburner. Steve Griffith is a moderate Republican, and ran against Chris Garrett for the House in 2008. He's in a primary race with Mary Kremer -- the spouse of right-wing activist Rob Kremer. Pass the popcorn!

The race to succeed Rick Metsger looks to also be a barnburner. Rep. Brent Barton faces Chuck Thomsen, a four-term incumbent Hood River County Commissioner. This one is going to be big, folks.

One of the enduring traditions in Oregon politics is the gathering in the House chamber for the closing couple of hours of filing day. Politicians, lobbyists, hacks, and reporters gather to watch a Big Board of filings.

Well, since we're not there, I've produced a big board of our own - based on the filings reported online by the Elections Division. These are all the filings posted online through 6:20 p.m. (One caveat: Some late filings may have yet to appear online, as they can be submitted on handwritten forms - and have to be data-entered by staff.) Update, 9:20 a.m.: Nothing new online, gotta assume this is final.

This is the board for the House. Democrats on the left, Republicans on the right, incumbents in bold.

Democrats Republicans 1 Eldon Rollins Wayne Krieger Lynn Kindred 2 Harry McDermott Tim J Freeman 3 Wally Hicks 4 Richard (Rick) Levine Dennis Richardson 5 Peter Buckley Sandra A. Abercrombie 6 Lynn Howe Sal Esquivel 7 Sara Byers Bruce Hanna 8 Paul R Holvey Simone Gordon 9 Arnie Roblan R Scott Roberts 10 Jean Cowan Becky Lemler Edward Johnston George Goldstein 11 Phil Barnhart Kelly R Lovelace 12 Elizabeth Terry Beyer Sean VanGordon 13 Nancy Nathanson Bill Young 14 Val Hoyle Dwight Coon 15 Bud Laurent Andy Olson 16 Sara A. Gelser Rose Cook 17 Richard Harisay Sherrie Sprenger Bruce Cuff 18 Rodney E. Orr Vic Gilliam 19 Claudia Kyle Kevin Cameron 20 Mike Powers Vicki Berger 21 Brian Clem John Alamarez Ken Jacobs Marvin Sannes 22 Betty Komp Kathy LeCompte Tom M Chereck Jr 23 Wesley W West Jim Thompson 24 Susan Sokol Blosser Jim S Weidner 25 Jim Dyer Kim Thatcher Douglas J Heuer 26 Sandy Webb Matt Wingard 27 Tobias Read Dan Lucas 28 Jeff Barker Bill Berg 29 Katie Riley Katie Eyre Brewer 30 David Edwards Shawn Lindsay 31 Brad Witt Ed DeCoste 32 Deborah Boone Lew Barnes 33 Mitch Greenlick Michael Bieker 34 Chris Harker Tyler Hill 35 Margaret Doherty Gordon Fiddes 36 Mary Nolan Diane Schendel 37 Gerritt Rosenthal Chael Sonnen Joelle Davis Will Rasmussen 38 Chris Garrett Rob Gardier 39 Toby Forsberg Bill Kennemer 40 Dave Hunt Deborah J Gerritzen 41 Carolyn Tomei Hugo Schulz 42 Jules Kopel Bailey Cliff Hutchison 43 Lew Frederick 44 Tina Kotek Kitty C. Harmon Richard Ellmyer 45 Michael Dembrow Anne Marie Gurney 46 Ben Cannon Russell Turner 47 Jefferson Smith Dee Flowers 48 Mike Schaufler Kayla Fioravanti 49 Nick Kahl Matthew Wand 50 Greg Matthews Andre Wang 51 Cheryl Myers John Swanson Patrick Sheehan 52 Suzanne VanOrman Mark Johnson 53 John Huddle Gene Whisnant 54 Judy Stiegler Jason Conger 55 Mike McLane Mike Wendel 56 Bill Garrard Karl Scronce 57 Jean A. Falbo Greg Smith Colleen MacLeod 58 Pete Wells Bob Jenson Michael Mathisen 59 Will Boettner John E Huffman Britt Storkson 60 Cliff Bentz

A few things worth noticing:

Republicans have candidates filed in 59 of 60 races. (Only Lew Frederick is going unchallenged.) Democrats have candidates filed candidates in 57 races.

Six incumbent House Republicans are facing primary challenges - Sprenger, Thatcher, Garrard, Smith, Jenson, Huffman. There are contested Republican primaries against three House Democratic incumbents - Clem, Cowan, Komp. And there are contested Republican primaries for two open seats (51 and 55.)

There is only one primary challenge to a Democratic incumbent - the challenge to Tina Kotek by perennial candidate Richard Ellmyer. There are only two other contested primary races, one in the open seat in HD 37, and one for the right to challenge Wayne Krieger in HD 1.

In short, the Democrats seem much more united in 2010 than do the Republicans. Interesting stuff.

The number of candidates filing for Ted Wheeler's former seat since being named state Treasurer was like watching water gushing out of a fire hydrant into a very small bucket which bounced.Steve Novick in, then out of the bucket standing on the sidewalk. One of my political friends in Bend told me Steve better be careful or he might be thought of as a ditherer...well not in my book. Steve's leadership skills seem a better fit for a statewide office or at the federal level or becoming our in-house grassroots organizer against all nutty initiatives.

Even Greg Walden drew an opponent in the 2nd Congressional District, Joyce Segers out of Ashland. Rumor has it she received a standing ovation at the recent OEA endorsement festival.

Susan Sokol Blosser threw her hat into the political ring for HD 24, Yamhill. I'll drink to that! 

And in Jackson County, 13 candidates have filed for two Jackson County Commissioner positions. The political reporter for the Medford Mail Tribune suggested the record number of candidates is due to the yearly pay and lack of jobs across the region. The "old guard" commissioners are experiencing the ever growing anti-incumbency mood of voters. I just hope all candidates have their eyes on the prize, improving our ailing economy.

Thank goodness the filing deadline passed at 5 pm.

Your thoughts....

About a month ago, Rasmussen released a poll that suggested the Oregon Senate race might be a close one, with incumbent Dem Ron Wyden leading challenger Jim Huffman by just 14 points, 49% to 35%.  Today, Grove Insight released numbers of a Wyden-commission poll that doubles the gap, 53%-23%.  This is three points ahead of the approval rating Survey USA measured for Wyden a month ago. To see what role name recognition might play, they also polled respondents (500 likely voters) about who they would support in hypothetical contests between Wyden and Jason Atkinson and Greg Walden.  Finally, Grove included the Libertarian, Marc Delphine.  Have a look:

Wyden: 53%
Huffman: 23%
Delphine: 5%
Undecided: 20%

Wyden: 53%
Atkinson: 22%
Delphine: 5%
Undecided: 20%

Wyden: 52%
Walden: 24%
Delphine: 5%
Undecided: 18%

A few comments and then I'll leave it to you: 1) polls are all about the sample, and the numbers I received didn't come with crosstabs; 2) it looks like respondents in this sample are reading Huffman/Atkinson/Walden as a generic Republican and for the moment, Wyden is safely in front; 3) based on this sample, it looks like the libertarian numbers are coming straight out of the GOP pool; 4) this is extremely early in the process and suggestive not of what will happen in November but where things are now. 

Your thoughts?

Just got off the phone with Steve Novick, who had been talking up today a possible run for the Multnomah County Chair seat vacated today by Ted Wheeler. Novick says he'll be throwing his support behind Jeff Cogen.

Novick said he had a good conversation with Bev Stein today, who advised him to support Cogen. Novick said he thought that was the right advice, so he took it.

OK, rather than overwhelm the site with a gazillion posts, we'll be updating filing day news here.

Let's kick it off with a big one:

9:50 a.m.: Former State Treasurer Jim Hill has filed to run for his old job. He was first elected State Treasurer in 1992 and served two terms. He ran unsuccessfully for Governor in 2002 and 2006. Hat tip to Willamette Week.

10:10 a.m.: Former state legislator Margaret Carter has filed for Multnomah County Chair.

10:18 a.m.: UCC Minister Chuck Currie has filed to replace Jeff Cogen in the Multnomah County Commission Seat, District #2.

10:22 a.m.: Former Multnomah County Commissioner Gary Hansen says he’ll run to replace Commissioner Jeff Cogen. (via Willamette Week)

10:35 a.m.: Congressman Peter DeFazio has drawn a new Republican opponent (now that Sid Leiken is out.) Art Robinson is the director of the Petition Project - a project that seeks to line up scientists who are "opposed to the hypothesis of human-caused global warming." He's also a home-schooling activist. Here's a 2001 profile from right-wing magazine American Spectator. (Filing here.)

10:47 a.m.: Richard Harisay, a Democrat, has filed to run in Oregon House District 17. That seat is currently held by Republican Sherrie Springer.

10:56 a.m.: Jeff Cogen has now officially withdrawn his filing for his District #2 Commission seat and has filed for MultCo Chair.

11:22 a.m.: This one is from yesterday, but I hadn't seen it reported elsewhere. Another GOPer has filed for Governor. West Linn resident and business owner Darren Karr has waded into the race. Karr already has a website in which he calls himself the Zero Dollar Candidate.

12:13 p.m.: Gary Hansen's filing is now official for MultCo Commish District #2.

1:57 p.m.: Hey, check this out! You can follow Multnomah County Elections on Facebook - and get live updates on all the filings.

2:06 p.m.: According to WW, Paul Van Orden will file to run for the District 2 Multnomah County Commission race. Paul is the noise control officer for the city of Portland, and picked up 10% of the county-wide vote for Sheriff in 2006 as a write-in candidate.

2:30 p.m.A few more filings for the State Legislature: Republican Kayla Fioravanti has filed to run against Democrat Mike Schauffler in House District 48. Democrat Mike Powers has filed in House District 20 against Vicki Berger--Powers is a member of SEIU and is set to give Berger a real run. On the Senate side, GOPer Karen Bodner is filing in the 7th district against Chris Edwards.

3:04 p.m. Democrat Rick Levine, a former president of Rogue Community College, has filed to run against Rep. Dennis Richardson (R-Central Point) in the 4th.

3:40 p.m. Timi Parker a retired teacher from Newberg has filed against Larry George. I'm hearing that race may turn out to be a hot one. Susan Sokol-Blosser has pulled the trigger against Jim Weidner (sweet!) in House District 24.

3:50 p.m. Paul Van Orden makes it official for MultCo Commissioner #2.

4:00 p.m.: Another race to keep an eye on: Pete Wells, the City Attorney of Pendleton, has filed to run in the seat currently held by Republican Bob Jenson. Jenson is facing a potentially bruising primary against Michael Mathisen of Hermiston.

4:09 p.m.: Ted Wheeler and Chris Telfer have officially filed for state treasurer.

5:34 p.m.: Multnomah County just updated their filings - and there are FIVE more candidates for District 2: Tom Markgraf, Roberta Phillip, Enrique Arias, Irma Linda Castillo, and Maria Rubio. Phew. ... Oops! Missed one: Loretta Smith, for a total of TEN candidates.

The dominoes have started falling, and they'll fall fast - because 5 p.m. is the deadline to file.

With Ted Wheeler's appointment as State Treasurer, he's no longer running for re-election as Multnomah County Chair.

According to Willamette Week, Steve Novick intends to file today to run for Multnomah County Chair. Novick previously worked in the chair's office, as a senior policy advisor to then-Chair Diane Linn.

Moments ago, Multnomah County Commissioner Jeff Cogen told me that he will file today as well. Cogen has been on the commission since 2006.

And Karol Collymore, currently a member of Cogen's staff, just filed at Multnomah County Elections to run for Cogen's seat. Collymore sought a pair of legislative appointments earlier this year, and is a BlueOregon editor. (Per our policy, she'll no longer participate here as long as she's an active candidate.)

Update, 9:45 a.m.: Willamette Week reports that Chuck Currie will also file to run for Cogen's commission seat. Currie is a long-time affordable housing advocate, an ordained minister, and blogs at ChuckCurrie.com.

Update, 10:10 a.m.: Willamette Week reports that Margaret Carter will also file to run for Cogen's commission seat County chair. Carter was a long-time state legislator - and resigned last fall to take a post with the Department of Human Services.

Stay tuned for more on this eventful filing day.

Today is the filing deadline for the 2010 election season, and one of the most important offices has many, many openings: Party Precinct Committee Person. There are thousands of these positions across the state, and few have greater value for the future, not just of your party, but progressive democracy in Oregon.

We talk about "parties" as if they have some solid, identifiable structure, but in truth, political parties are pretty indistinct critters. Yes, there are officers (more on that soon) and candidates, and there are committees and activists, but a political party is greater than just those few individuals or policy platforms you can identify. A party is an easy target to attack, until you try to specify who, exactly it is, you are targeting.

Take the Democratic Party of Oregon. There is a state party with officers and employees. There are also members who serve, through the county parties, on state committees. These local members come from all over the state, and their political views range from the uber-blues of Portland to the very purplish southern and eastern Dems (often a lonely, but defiant, group). So when someone says "Those Democrats!" are they refering to the ones who are very pro-business, the ones who are anti-corporate, the treehuggers, the fishermen, the former loggers, the soccer moms in Irvington — who exactly are "those Dems"?

Well, they are you. If you are a registered Democrat, vote Dem, support Democratic candidates, give to Democratic causes — that's you. When you hear someone bitch about "the Dems" they are casting that net over you. But you're not the one in office, you're not the one making "those" decisions.

Take a stand, not to defend the party (whichever party you choose to affiliate with) but to direct and guide the party. Become a PCP. Be responsible for the policies and actions of your local county party. You can make a difference at the local level; just ask any elected official who comes to the party for money and volunteers to win an election.

Becoming a PCP is simple. Get your butt to your local County Elections Office by 5pm and file. Then get 3 people to vote for you in the May 18th primary. That's it. You'll then be "those Democrats" too. And one very important fact: Only those PCPs elected in the Primary election are eligible to vote for County Party officers. So if your County Party simply isn't getting the message that we need to move forward, and isn't working for progressive causes, the best way to change it is to get new leadership. And only those who are on the ballot May 18th will be eligible to vote for those progressive local leaders.

So get to your and file that paperwork (it's free). If you've already done so, get your friends to do the same. It really is important. State offices may be getting all the ink, but remember what Howard Dean told us in 2003: "You've got the power".

Use that power as a PCP and make a difference people can point to with pride and certainty.

This morning at the PDX Airport Conference Center, Oregon Governor Ted Kulongoski announced that he is appointing Multnomah County Commission Chair Ted Wheeler to fill the State Treasurer's job vacated by the death of Ben Westlund.

Kari has already posted the official statements from Kulongoski and Wheeler. However, the early morning press conference was a somber affair with both men seeming to feel the weight of grief for the passing of Westlund. Kulongoski noted that nobody really wants to think about politics right now, but that there was little choice given the time constraints.

Governor Kulongoski said that he had first spoken with Wheeler about the position on Sunday afternoon. He also said that his short list really only included Wheeler and one other person: former State Representative Greg Macpherson. The decision was made to go with Wheeler late last night. Kulongoski noted that he chose Wheeler in part because he knew that labor support would be tough to secure for Macpherson in the upcoming election.

Kulongoski introduced Wheeler as an individual with a good deal of public and private expertise in the integrity of fiscal responsibility. Before taking the helm as Multnomah County Chair, Wheeler, age 47, worked in the financial industry with Bank of America and with Copper Mountain Trust. He's a graduate of Lincoln High School in Portland and earned a BA in Economics from Stanford University. He also has an MBA from Columbia and a Masters in Public Policy from the JFK School of Government at Harvard.

Wheeler said that he takes the job with conflicting emotions but says he is well prepared for the challenges ahead. He's looking for a seamless transition and is withdrawing from the County Chair election and will run for the State Treasurer seat as an incumbent.

So what happens for Multnomah County? Wheeler says he will step down as Multnomah County Chair on Thursday. Chief Operating Officer Jana McLellen will become Acting Chair and the Board will elect a new Chair to serve until December 31, 2010. In the meantime, those wishing to run for the position must file by 5:00PM today. "I am confident that some highly qualified candidates may step forward," Wheeler said. Wheeler also said that he gave advanced notice of his resignation and appointment to his fellow Board members and high level staff. "I'm very confident that the county is in good hands," he said.

Wheeler's duties as Treasurer will include serving as the state's chief financial officer, managing billions in taxpayer funds. He will also be the state's chief investment officer--which includes the investment of the Public Employees Retirement Fund, the State Accident Insurance Fund and the Common School Fund, among others.

As Treasurer, Wheeler will also serve on the State Land Board where he will work to manage state trust lands for the Common School Fund.

Governor Ted Kulongoski has just announced that he is appointing Ted Wheeler as the new State Treasurer. Currently, Wheeler is the chair of Multnomah County.

In a statement, Governor Kulongoski said:

“Ted Wheeler brings the perfect balance of expertise from both the public and private sectors to this job with an impressive record managing the county’s budget to a working knowledge of the financial industry,” said Governor Ted Kulongoski. “A fifth generation Oregonian with ties across the state, I am confident that Ted will serve Oregonians well as the State Treasurer.”

In a statement posted on his official county website, Wheeler said:

This weekend, Oregon lost a champion, leader and good friend in Ben Westlund. In many ways Ben represented exactly the kind of leader we need today. He brought both civility and passion to government and he rose above partisan divisions. He came from a successful career in the private sector but he understood and cared deeply about public service. My sympathies go to his family Libby, B.J. and Taylor.

It is with conflicted emotions that I accept Governor Kulongoski’s appointment to the office of Oregon State Treasurer. I am grateful for the opportunity to serve the citizens of this great state and believe I am well prepared for the challenges ahead but I am saddened by the circumstances that bring me here today.

I imagine in some corners of the state, people will ask: “Who is Ted Wheeler?” The short answer is that I currently serve as the chief executive officer of the largest county in Oregon, that I was a senior manager of an investment firm in my private sector career and that I have graduate degrees in government and business. In short, I’ve got a good resume for this job. Frankly, I’ve thought for some time that I might run for Treasurer at some point in the future. I never expected it to be this soon.

Accepting this appointment will require me to resign from my position as Multnomah County Chair effective Thursday, March 11. Per the Multnomah County Charter, my designee, Chief Operating Officer Jana McLellen will become Acting Chair upon my resignation. The Board of County Commissioners will choose an interim Chair to serve until the end of 2010. The permanent position will be on the May ballot. I will remain as involved as necessary to ensure a smooth transition.

Today I will withdraw my candidacy for a second term as County Chair and I will file for election as Oregon State Treasurer.

My plan is to provide a seamless transition for Treasurer’s Office staff and I look forward to meeting with them this week. I’m going to refrain from jumping in on any of the current issues facing the Treasurer’s Office until I have had time to review the facts.

Several years ago, I chose to leave a successful career in the private sector because I believed that I had something to offer the people of my community. Now the Governor has given me the opportunity to serve the whole state, and I can hardly say no. I wish the circumstances were different. I certainly would have preferred different timing, but I accept this challenge without regret and with the confidence that I can provide good stewardship of Oregon’s resources and good value to the taxpayers.

Learn more about Ted Wheeler on his official county website, his campaign website, his Facebook page, and from Twitter.

We'll update more as we learn more.

It’s thoroughly depressing to see that the one Republican who claims she’s running for Treasurer is State Senator Chris Telfer. Telfer’s the one who claimed that a Secretary of State audit said that the State had billions of extra dollars lying around for the taking. When the Secretary of State’s office and Legislative Fiscal explained that that was simply untrue, Telfer continued to insist that it must be true. It was one of the more bizarre episodes in the Measure 66 / 67 campaign.

Here are selections from the Oregonian story in January:

Reports that Oregon has billions of dollars stashed away in surplus accounts -- fanned by Republican legislators and opponents of proposed tax increases -- are bunk, say the accountants who compile an annual report on the state's financial status.

"I'm always amazed that people could think there's a pot of gold here that no one knew about except the state controller's division," said Kathryn Ross, the statewide accounting and reporting manager in the Department of Administrative Services ....

In a news release earlier this week, Telfer said, "This report confirms that there are billions of dollars for use at the Legislature's discretion."

No, it doesn't, Ross said ...

Ken Rocco, the legislative fiscal officer, said he wrestled with this issue a year ago and wrote a long memo to lawmakers explaining why the ending fund balances weren't flush with money that could be used to fill budget holes.

"It's the same thing we said before," Rocco said. "The vast majority of these funds are tied up in various special kinds of trust funds, revolving loan accounts" and other restrictions.

Those of us who closely follow Oregon politics and policy are deeply saddened by the death of Oregon State Treasurer Ben Westlund. He was a kind, giving man whose independent spirit and dedication to our state will be greatly missed.

Unfortunately, the difficult task of finding someone to fill the office can't wait very long.

As Kari mentioned, there's a very quick turnaround time in terms of the deadline for major party candidates filing for the position.

The Governor will be appointing someone to fill the seat and that person must be a Democrat. According to ORS 236.100:

Political affiliation of person appointed to fill vacancy in partisan elective office. (1) Except as provided in subsection (2) of this section, whenever a vacancy occurs in any partisan elective office in this state and is to be filled by appointment, no person shall be eligible for such appointment unless the person is affiliated, as determined by the appropriate entry on the person’s official election registration card with the same political party:

(emphasis Carla)

Today's rumor mill is a-buzz with a number of Democrats who would like the job or are perhaps considering filing. In no particular order:

1. Rick Metsger: State Senator from Welches, Oregon. Metsger has already filed for the job. The timber and transportation interests are big fans of Senator Metsger. They'd be likely to go to bat for him in a campaign. Metsger had already announced his retirement from the State Senate and Rep. Brent Barton is running for that seat. If Metsger were appointed by Kulongoski, Barton would certainly have an inside track for the appointment--and could then run for State Senate as an incumbent.

2. Greg Macpherson: Former State Representative from Lake Oswego and attorney with Stoel Rives. Ran for Oregon Attorney General in 2008, losing in the primary to current AG John Kroger. Macpherson is generally beloved in the environmental community in part for his strong work to pass Measure 49. However, labor isn't likely to warm to Macpherson because of their displeasure with his work to restructure the Public Employees Retirement System. Macpherson has a ton of experience working with pensions and benefit plans, as this is his legal specialty in his law practice. It also happens that managing the public employees retirement money is one of the jobs of State Treasurer.

3. Steve Novick: Novick provides a number of interesting facets to the job and to the upcoming campaign. First, he has good statewide name ID following his run for U.S. Senate in 2008. Novick has a huge base of ardent supporters and can probably pull a campaign together relatively quickly. He's just come off a huge victory with Measures 66 and 67 as well. When I spoke with Novick today, he expressed interest in the job: "I hate that people have to think about this the day after Ben Westlund is gone, but we do. It's a great job and it would allow me to address Wall Street type issues. Ben was trying to figure out with our fiduciary obligations how to make creative investments for Oregon. That should continue. Also, financial education for kids and adults should continue as well." Novick said that it would be an "honor to follow Ben" in the job. And it wouldn't be Novick without a witty response: "I was okay in math until I hit linear algebra." Novick says that the Governor's office has not contacted him about the position. He also said that he believes a wide array of folks should be considered for the job.

4. Richard Devlin: Senate Majority Leader. Devlin understands politics and how to run an effective campaign. He has a degree in management and has served awhile on Ways and Means, which means he understands money and budgets. The downside: his seat would be very tough to defend.

5. Ted Wheeler: Currently the Chair of the Multnomah County Commission. Wheeler has executive experience running a very large organization. He has a reputation for balancing the needs of the business community with the desires of progressives in Multnomah County. When I contacted Wheeler this afternoon he said, "I have nothing to say about this". When I told him that his name was being mentioned as a possibility for the job he said that he had no idea why. Wheeler seemed to want to put an end to the speculation.

I haven't been able to reach all of those whose names I'm hearing, but I'll provide updates as I get to them.

The office of the state treasurer has announced plans for memorial services for Ben Westlund:

The public is invited to two memorial services for Oregon State Treasurer Ben Westlund, who died Sunday of cancer at the age of 60.

A Central Oregon celebration will be at 2 p.m. on Friday, March 12, at the Riverhouse Conference Center, 2850 NW Rippling River Court in Bend.

Westlund will be honored at the Oregon Capitol in Salem at a public ceremony in the House chamber at 2 p.m. on Saturday, March 13.

Furthermore:

In lieu of flowers or gifts, the Westlund family asks that financial contributions be directed to the Ben Westlund Memorial Fund, which will accept donations at any US Bank branch starting on Tuesday. The fund will benefit the Opportunity Foundation of Central Oregon. The Redmond nonprofit provides services to people with intellectual or developmental disabilities in Deschutes, Crook and Jefferson counties.

“Ben Westlund really cared about people and was a longtime champion for people with mental and physical challenges,” said Darrel Wilson, the nonprofit’s executive director.

Correspondence and condolences that are sent and delivered to Westlund’s former Capitol office will be forwarded to the Westlund family.

Finally, BenWestlund.com has been updated to include the statement from the family and staff - as well as a video from his return to the Capitol in 2003 from cancer treatment.

First, let's acknowledge one thing right off the bat: It is unseemly and awkward to be talking about a successor to Ben Westlund so soon after his untimely death.

However, the election calendar doesn't allow us the time we'd all like to reflect on Ben's life and career before moving on to the political gamesmanship. It's unfortunate, but there's nothing to be done about it. (We will, of course, continue to reflect on the loss of Ben Westlund in the coming days and weeks.)

Here's the deal: Because the office of state treasurer has been vacated in the first half of the term (Ben was elected in 2008), the seat opens up for an election this year. Candidates for treasurer will run in a partisan primary in May, with a general election in November. The timing is especially tough, because the filing deadline is tomorrow, Tuesday at 5 p.m.

Meanwhile, Governor Ted Kulongoski will make an appointment to fill the treasurer's job for the remainder of the year. He may, or may not, make an appointment prior to tomorrow's filing deadline. Of course, if the appointee hasn't filed by then, they'll be simply a rest-of-the-year placeholder. So far, the Governor hasn't made any announcement about who he's considering, when he'll make his pick, or even when he'll announce when he'll make his pick.

Already today, we've learned that Rick Metsger is running. Jeff Mapes:

Metsger, who unsucessfully ran for secretary of state in 2008 and is retiring from the Senate this year, said he is in the race regardless of whether he is appointed by Kulongoski or not.

"If you want the job, you go for it," said Metsger. He argued that his service on the State Debt Policy Advisory Committee and chairmanship of the Senate Business and Transportation Committee help qualify him for the job. Metsger has been a communications consultant and is a former TV newsman.

According to Mapes, Allen Alley - who lost in 2008 to Westlund - is not interested. Neither is Senate President Peter Courtney.

Yesterday, Willamette Week's Nigel Jaquiss speculated aloud about the possibilities:

In some ways the most logical person is ex-Rep. Greg Macpherson (D-Lake Oswego). Macpherson, a benefits lawyer, is an expert on the Public Employee Retirement System, whose complexities figure into the Treasurer’s job. And unlike some current lawmakers who may want the job but recently spurned Kulongoski’s plea to reform the kicker, Macpherson aided the governor by taking on the thankless task of implementing PERS reform in 2003. Macpherson’s role in PERS reform cost him dearly in the 2008 Attorney General’s race. In that contest, public employee unions punished him by throwing extensive financial support to the eventual winner, John Kroger.

The target on Macpherson’s back presents a risk: if Kulongoski appoints him, there’s a possibility the public employee unions could recruit and support another Democrat to oppose him in the May primary. Given the short time window, union financial support could be a decisive advantage, but it would be difficult to recruit a strong candidate by filing time and given the bad press around allegations of Democratic retribution during the February special legislative session, the unions may just let Macpherson alone.

Other Democrats mentioned as possible successors include Senate President Peter Courtney (D-Salem) and Senate Majority Leader Richard Devlin (D-Tualatin) and Sen. Rick Metsger (D-Welches). Metsger is retiring and thus available. Courtney and Devlin have planned to continue in the Senate but might be tempted by the post.

Discuss.

I feel absolutely horrible today about Ben Westlund. And his death has also brought the memory of the untimely loss of Bryan Johnston roaring back. Two men who proved, among other things, that “moderate” doesn’t have to mean wishy-washy milquetoast.

In their honor, and because of a conversation I had with a friend this morning, I’ll take a stab at being moderate myself. Here we go:

I think progressives need to reach out to Oregon’s investor community. I’m concerned that the Measure 66 / 67 fight might have soured some investors on Oregon. And I think we need to think about a capital gains tax break.

Yes, this is really me. I haven’t been abducted and brainwashed by aliens. I’m still proud of helping to pass Measures 66 and 67. But I am serious. Let me explain.

This morning I had breakfast with a guy I know who actually voted for 66 and 67, but who hangs out with investor types, the kind of people who invest in start-ups that might became job-creating traded-sector businesses. He said that the adoption of and the discussion around Measure 66, in particular, made them feel that they weren’t valued. They were willing to absorb a temporary tax increase, but when the Legislature made it partly permanent, they got the impression that nobody cared about people who invest in Oregon businesses. And some of them, my friend said, will leave, or have left, the state. Not because 0.9% of the amount they make over $250,000 is going to ruin them financially, But because they wound up not feeling valued.

Now, I did not think before, and do not think now, that there will be a mass exodus of rich people from Oregon. But I always acknowledged throughout the campaign that there would probably be a few who would get grumpy and leave. My friend has convinced me that that’s true. I think a lot of it is probably because of the way Salem lobbyists managed to sell a distorted version of what actually happened in the ’09 session, and I told my friend that, but he said it doesn’t matter: the perceptions are there.

That doesn’t mean that we repeal 66 and 67. At all. But if there are ways to make some of these folks feel more valued, we should try them out. If we can convince even a few of the few to stay, that’s a good thing.

I am reminded of the fight over PERS reform in 2003. Because of really unfortunate decisions the PERS board made in the 1990s, PERS costs were skyrocketing and something had to be done. But when the reforms were implemented, a lot of public employees felt that they had been personally attacked and disrespected. They didn’t all necessarily know everything about how dire the short- and long-term budget situation was, or how PERS fit into it. They thought the people in charge didn’t value them. (The fact that the reforms went beyond what the Oregon Supreme Court thought was even Constitutional didn’t help, of course, but I think people would have been pretty mad regardless.)

Now, some people were going to feel that way no matter what Governor Kulongoski or legislators said to them. But I bet that if the Governor had it to do over again, he would go on an extensive speaking / listening tour of public employee work sites to talk them through why reforms were necessary. That might have helped fend off the primary challenge he wound up with in 2006. I understand the pressures on the Governor in the fall and winter of 2002-2003; he had to put an administration and a budget together, flesh out his legislative agenda, etc.  But ideally, he would have worked in that speaking / listening tour.

I think progressives – elected an unelected – should try to do something like that with investor types now. I’ve heard, actually, that our legislators are doing direct outreach to business owners around the state – going directly to the business folks, not through their lobbyists. I think that’s great.

Because I am quite confident that even many rich, sophisticated investors and business folks really don’t know a hell of a lot about the state’s short-term, medium-term and long-term budget problems, or about how politically limited the legislature’s revenue options were and are. Without someone taking the time to walk them through that, some of them really are going to think that we were just out to get them. And some of them are going to turn away from Oregon, not invest in the Oregon start-ups they might otherwise have invested in. No, not enough to cause the economic catastrophe that the Measures 66 and 67 opponents warned of; not enough to make a big difference in the amount of revenue that Measure 66 will collect. But there will be a few. If through outreach we can make that few even fewer, we should give it a shot.

One thing that we could do is restore, in somewhat expanded form, a capital gains tax break that Oregon adopted in the ‘90’s and that then was allowed to lapse: A tax break for investments in Oregon-specific businesses.  As you may know, I have always been thoroughly opposed to an across-the-board cut in capital gains taxes. Mostly that would just mean that people who make money gambling in the stock market, creating no Oregon jobs at all, would get to pay a lower tax rate than people who have regular jobs have to pay. But I see nothing wrong with telling investors that if they invest in an Oregon-based business, they should pay a lower tax rate than if they don’t.

My good friend Chuck Sheketoff says that the Oregon capital gains provision didn’t work, didn’t generate much if any additional investment in Oregon businesses. The friend I had breakfast with today says that the law was interpreted in an incredibly narrow way and was therefore much less meaningful than it could have been. Maybe he’s wrong; maybe no such thing will ever make a darned but of difference. But I don’t see the harm in trying. If nobody uses it, it won’t cost us anything. It won’t cost a lot of money under any scenario, because the vast majority of capital gains will still come from people investing in the broad-based stock market. But it might help spur a bit of extra investment in Oregon-based businesses. And it might reassure those investors my friend know that we do value them.

It’s kind of like the single sales factor, another issue (among very few) where Chuck and I are on opposite sides. Conceptually, I agreed with Nike and Intel that the corporate profits tax should be based on a company’s Oregon sales, and they shouldn’t pay more because they have property and employees in Oregon. Why punish a company for having employees and property in Oregon? If they have employees and property, they’re paying income and property taxes. The actual single sales factor legislation was problematic because it was a net revenue loss that we could not afford: They should have raise the rate to offset that. But the concept was sound. To the extent reasonably feasible, we should have a tax code that collects taxes from businesses based outside of Oregon that make money here, and encourages the creation of businesses based in Oregon. Same with capital gains: If we collect a lot of money from people who live here but make their money gambling in the stock market, while giving a break to people who invest in Oregon-based businesses, why not? 

Again: I know that taxes are generally not a big factor in business location decisions. I don’t think they’re generally a big factor in personal location decisions either. If they were, there wouldn’t be so many rich people in New York and California.

But again: If even a few investors are going to leave, and we can do some things to convince a few of the few to stay, why not? 

By the way, my friend this morning was a huge fan of Ben Westlund. Who supported Measures 66 and 67, but still – according to my friend – was working with and had the respect of my friend and his friends.